Acute stress improves long-term reward maximization in decision-making under uncertainty

Reward Maximization Under Uncertainty: Leveraging Side-Observations Reward Maximization Under Uncertainty: Leveraging Side-Observations on Networks

We study the stochastic multi-armed bandit (MAB) problem in the presence of sideobservations across actions that occur as a result of an underlying network structure. In our model, a bipartite graph captures the relationship between actions and a common set of unknowns such that choosing an action reveals observations for the unknowns that it is connected to. This models a common scenario in on...

Commitment Semantics for Sequential Decision Making under Reward Uncertainty

Cooperating agents can make commitments to help each other, but commitments might have to be probabilistic when actions have stochastic outcomes. We consider the additional complication in cases where an agent might prefer to change its policy as it learns more about its reward function from experience. How should such an agent be allowed to change its policy while still faithfully pursuing its...

Decision making under uncertainty

Decision making under uncertainty

1 Laboratory of Computational Neuroscience, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, Lausanne, Switzerland 2 Laboratoire de Recherché en Neuroimagerie, Le Centre Hospitalier Universitaire Vaudois, Lausanne, Switzerland 3 Information Processing and Economic Decision Making, Department of Psychology, Universität Konstanz, Konstanz, Germany 4 Economic Psychology, Department of Psychology, Univers...

Demand forecasting and decision making under uncertainty for long-term production planning in aviation industry

The aviation industry represents a complex system with low-volume high-value manufacturing, long lead times, large capital investments, and highly variable demand. Making important decisions with intensive capital investments requires accurate forecasting of future demand. However, this can be challenging because of significant variability in future scenarios. The purpose of this research is to...